Decisive Losses

The Yanks were in Arlington (where they haven't lost in about two years) and the Twins in Seattle (against the worst team in the American League). Neither of my teams had any business losing to their opponents. But they did. Twice. And that, folks, is frustrating. And they weren't just losses. The Yankees lost Joba to the DL (there goes the season?), and the Twins bullpen proved that it can't hold a lead on the road. In the heat of pennant races, these developments could spell doom for both the Bombers and the Twinks. That does NOT make for a fun October.

After the Yanks got shut down by a rookie yesterday, I decided to test my hypothesis that the Yanks crash and burn against starting pitchers they haven't seen before and excel against vets. Here are the results:

First off, I defined "rookie" as a pitcher who's had two or fewer 25+ start seasons. And I only looked at starting pitchers who got a "W" against the Yanks. As much as I hate pitcher W/L, it was the most straightforward metric to use.

By status:

• 18 rookies have beaten the Yanks.
• 23 veterans have beaten them.
• Opponents starting winning rookies have outscored the Yankees 143-49, for a run differential of 94.
• Opponents starting winning vets have outscored the Yankees 137-62, for a run differential of 75.
• Thus, contrary to how it may feel, the Yankees don't lose to new pitchers more than older ones, although they do score fewer runs in the situations overall.

By team:

• Teams currently above .500 have beaten us with rookies 11 times and with vets 11 times.
• Teams currently below .500 have beaten us with rookies 7 times and with vets 12 times.
• Thus, "bad" teams still have better success against the Yankees when they start someone with experience.
• Above .500 teams have outscored the Yanks 154-61, with means a differential of 93. When they start rookies, they outscore them 89-31, which makes the difference 58.
• Below .500 teams outscored the Yanks 126-50, with means a differential of 76. When they start rookies, they outscore them 54-18, for a difference of 36.
• Thus, the Yankees still lose harder against better teams.

I really wouldn't have expected that.