He's right, you know. The Bombers have a stronger lineup (courtesy of Posada, Arod, and Jeter), and their bench may be somewhat better. However, the Boston clearly has a less-questionable rotation, a solid bullpen, tight defense, and an experienced manager. In other words, the Sox are clear favorites for the AL East for the first time in about a decade. The bad news is that I may have to deal with a Red Sox Nation with a legitimate superiority complex from now until May. The good news is that success is always sweeter when you're written off as the underdogs :-).
I'd like to go back to the Yankees' weaknesses with respect to their rivals. The biggest problem is the bullpen--no doubt. The pen is absolutely key to success in 2008, mainly because it is linked to every other shortcoming of the club:
I don't fear the rotation on its own; the "questionmarks" in the mix of Pettitte, Wang, Hughes, Chamberlain, and Kennedy/Mussina aren't in their ability. Rather, they're in their endurance. Phil, Joba, and IPK will almost definitely be on pitch counts, which means they won't be throwing complete games unless they happen to be incredibly efficient. Factor in bad days that result in early exits for the veterans, and you have a bullpen that will be required to make an appearance for multiple innings on a daily basis.
As far as defense goes, everyone knows that the Yankees aren't a team of gold glovers. Arod's coming around at third, but we have subfar fielders at first, short, and left, combined with average talent everywhere else. And if last year is any indication of a decline, Jorge's success at preventing stolen bases is quickly fading away. A bullpen needs to come in that can minimize the work for the fielders. Yes, the offense will probably score over 950 runs once again, but 2007 perfectly illustrated how even putting up 20 a game is useless if the pen allows 21.
Finally, we come to the manager. Joe Girardi's weakest point on the Marlins was his management of the young arms. Hughes/Joba/Kennedy will be controlled by Cashman (and Hank) for sure, but when that magic pitch count is reached, Joe need to be confident about who he calls on. Heaven forbid he has to spin a wheel daily. The upside is that he can't possibly be worse than Torre, can he? The downside is that without the proper selection to choose from...
Right now, the all-important New York Yankees bullpen for the 2008 season looks like:
The Veterans
- Mariano Rivera
- Kyle Farnsworth
- LaTroy Hawkins
The Other Guys
- Brian Bruney
- Edwar Ramirez
- Kei Igawa
- Jeff Karstens
- Ross Ohlendorf
- Sean Henn
- Jose Veras
(And also, there are a slew of minor-leaguers who could come to the rescue, too.)
So in the ideal world, Igawa will become the monster he was in Japan and turn into a solid middle-reliever/long-man; he did this a few times last season and was more-or-less successful. Bruney is lights-out when he has control, and when Edwar regains some confidence (and common sense) his fastball/fastball/changeup sequence wrecks havoc. Veras and Russ will grow a little and learn their roles in Spring Training, while Henn and Karstens will, umm, be reliable? And of course, the "vets" will do their jobs (you know I'm talking "ideal world" when I can say that about Farns. Good grief.)
Or maybe Girardi should go Farns-Hawkins-Rivera for 7-8-9 and use everyone else earlier as the situation calls? I only wish it were that easy.
The point of all this is the following. The Yankees have been able to get by with a shaky bullpen over the past few seasons, but there's no way that will work this year. Setting up a solid relief department will be the key to having the last game in the old Yankee Stadium played in October.
--------------------------
For New Year's Eve, Joe and I decided to go to Saratoga to check out their First Night Celebration. It wasn't too bad--there was a lot going on and the weather was tolerable. But Saratoga! Tons of childhood memories were unlocked last night (ironically, I forgot how to get to the street of my old elementary school). But I never remembered the city being full of loud drunken idiots. Is this a special New Year's phenomena, or has the little hamlet finally woken up?
Also, let it be known that it snowed twice today. In large amounts. I haven't seen weather like this since freshman year; now I remember why I hate it.
