On the Lookout: MLB 2008

I strongly believe that baseball can't be predicted. Thus, it makes no sense for me to sit here and spell out what I think will happen during the 2008 season (despite spending two hours to complete my form for the annual NYYFans Prediction Contest). I will instead entertain you with 15 things, in no particular order, that I'll be keeping a close eye on as the season unfolds. Perhaps you'll be doing the same.

1. Johan Santana's success in the NL
Note that I didn't just say "progress." Out of his past four 200+ inning seasons, the two-time Cy Young winner amassed his worst ERA last year: a mere 3.33. And that was in the hard hitting American League. If you make the safe assumption that he's not on a decline (which is valid, despite claims that his slider is losing velocity), you can probably expect him to tear up the NL East and the entire Senior Circuit. The only question is: will we see a 2.50 or 2.10 from him by the end of it all?

2. The trials of the 2008 Minnesota Twins
I won't harp anymore on how devastating the loss of Santana and Torii Hunter was for this team's present state. Instead, let's wonder if their young talent will be able to maintain a status quo so there can actually be some celebration when the new stadium opens.

3. Francisco Liriano
Despite a very positive Spring outing against the Orioles earlier this week, his fastball has dropped from the mid-90's to barely breaking 91. He also has added on 20 pounds. Will Liriano be able to be the pitching star he was before his surgery, or will he return to Earth and become a perpetual questionmark in the rotation?

4. Joe Girardi's handling of the Yankees
The new Joe is fiery. The new Joe is passionate. The new Joe isn't afraid to show a little emotion and spunk. How will this affect a team that was previously under the command of a very calm and collected manager? Will the umps stop making miserable calls? Will opposing pitchers stop drilling our batters? And will the Mike Scioscia's Angels finally forget our number?

5. The Yankee Big Three
Hughes, Chamberlain, and Kennedy. At least, after the pitiful elimination in 2007, we were able to look forward to this. And now it is time. Currently constituting two-fifths of the rotation and ultimately going to make up 60% of it, will these three be able to handle the task? They'll be on strict pitch counts, but they'll still be expected to give quality Major League outings every five days; this is a new routine for them. But how great will it be to watch them dominate? If all goes according to plan, we will be witnessing the start of an amazing home-grown pitching trifecta in the Bronx. No pressure, guys. No pressure.

6. Alex Rodriguez
I think that, from the moment of the trade in 2003, Arod began auditioning. In order to earn a monstrous salary after his potential opt-out, he would have to play 110%. And of course, an overachieving Arod is a stressed-out and distracted Arod (which results in 2006--that still was a 35HR, 121RBI season, mind you). But now that the pressure is off and he's stuck in the Bronx for 10 years, it will be nice to see if his comfort level rises. After all, a happy Arod is a frightening and productive Arod, and I wouldn't mind seeing many more seasons like 2007.

7. The Detroit Tigers
Let's face it: this team looks better on paper than it is. Their lineup appears stacked (Maggs! Sheff! Cabrera!) and so does the rotation. But that paper isn't even statistical paper, since the latter type would show that D-Train has seen a ballooning ERA and WHIP over the past three seasons*, and that was in the NL. So unlike with Santana, this league change is bound to hurt him. And as far as the lineup goes, similar things were said about the Yanks at the beginning of 2007, and we know how that turned out. The moral of the story is to not get taken in by the bandwagon...but it doesn't hurt to watch.

*(2005: 2.63 and 1.134; 2006: 3.87 and 1.419; 2007: 5.17 and 1.597)

8. The AL Central
The Indians and Tigers have the rotation and power to make this race interesting. Not to mention, the White Sox claim they're back in the running too. As for the Twins and Royals? One can hope, I suppose. At any rate, this division should be close all season long, and the winner with the proper momentum may be able to go all the way...

9. Cubs 2008
100 years since their last championship: will this painful anniversary be celebrated with another World Series victory?

10. The AL East
Yeah yeah, the Red Sox have a similar team as last year, but repeating is very difficult to do. Despite their status as favorites, don't count out the Yankees; they also look pretty similar with the exception of younger arms. Also, the Devil Rays are confident that the youth on their team is now mature enough to make a statement. Is this true, or will it end up being like the Blue-Jays-circa-2006 type talk?

11. The AL West
The Mariners have King Felix and Erik Bedard. The Angels have Vlad Guerrero and Torii Hunter. The Moneyballin' A's are sporting a healthy Rich Harden and Bobby Crosby. On paper, nothing is for certain yet. It will be interesting to see if these new acquisitions (from other teams and from the DL) will give rise to any new tension in the division.

12. The SF Giants
They're old, have a dud of an ace, and are without Barry Bonds. Do these guys have anything going for them? Many are claiming that the Giants are the worst team in the game, and will end the season with the record to prove it. I hope so; I have a prediction contest banking on it...

13. The LA Dodgers
Joe Torre did wonders for the Yankees, but the team was in the right shape and his personality at the time resonated with it completely. I do not think that the 2008 Torre will be able to grace the Dodgers with his Bronx-style magic. Part of me wants to see a Girardi-Torre World Series, but that's wishful thinking.

14. Steroid Fallout
Who else will end up being a casualty of the Steroid Era? How will the current Clemens and Bonds plots play out? And what effect will it have on the season?

15. AL vs. NL
Despite being only two players, the acquisition of Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera by Detroit led many to claim that this further proved which league was the strongest. We'll see if the new AL can live up to these expectations when the Midsummer Classic is played in Yankee Stadium in July.

(Ok, perhaps I did a little prediction there, but it can't be helped.)

Five days until the ride begins again...